Is grading worth it?

The calculation

1. Start with what the card sells for raw, in the condition it is in now.
2. Look up what the same card sells for in each grade: a PSA 10, a PSA 9, a PSA 8.
3. Weigh each of those prices by how likely that grade is. A card with a 20 percent chance of a 10 and a 60 percent chance of a 9 is worth far less than a card that is almost certainly a 10.
4. Subtract the grading fee, shipping both ways, insurance, and the fee you pay when you sell.
5. What remains is your expected gain. If it does not clear the raw price by a comfortable margin, leave the card raw.

A worked example

A card sells raw for 60. In a PSA 10 it sells for 400, in a PSA 9 for 120, in a PSA 8 for 70.

Your estimate says 25 percent chance of a 10, 55 percent of a 9, 20 percent of an 8. That gives an expected graded value of 100 plus 66 plus 14, so 180.

Grading and shipping cost 30, and selling costs you 12 percent. After costs you keep roughly 128. That is more than double the raw price, so this one is worth sending.

Now change the odds to 5 percent for a 10, and the same card is barely break even. The odds are what decide it, which is exactly why estimating them first matters.

See the estimate on a real card

Where people go wrong

• Using the highest price they can find instead of what cards actually sold for.
• Forgetting that a low grade can make a card worth less than it was raw.
• Sending one card at a time. Shipping and handling are far cheaper per card in a batch.